Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Simulation of impulse response for indoor visible light communications using 3D CAD models

n this article, a tool for simulating the channel impulse response for indoor visible light communications using 3D computer-aided design (CAD) models is presented. The simulation tool is based on a previous Monte Carlo ray-tracing algorithm for indoor infrared channel estimation, but including wavelength response evaluation. The 3D scene, or the simulation environment, can be defined using any CAD software in which the user specifies, in addition to the setting geometry, the reflection characteristics of the surface materials as well as the structures of the emitters and receivers involved in the simulation. Also, in an effort to improve the computational efficiency, two optimizations are proposed. The first one consists of dividing the setting into cubic regions of equal size, which offers a calculation improvement of approximately 50% compared to not dividing the 3D scene into sub-regions. The second one involves the parallelization of the simulation algorithm, which provides a computational speed-up proportional to the number of processors used.

High Fidelity Models for Near-Earth Object Dynamics

Motivado por los últimos hallazgos realizados gracias a los recientes avances tecnológicos y misiones espaciales, el estudio de los asteroides ha despertado el interés de la comunidad científica. Tal es así que las misiones a asteroides han proliferado en los últimos años (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) incentivadas por su enorme interés científico. Los asteroides son constituyentes fundamentales en la evolución del Sistema Solar, son además grandes concentraciones de valiosos recursos naturales, y también pueden considerarse como objectivos estratégicos para la futura exploración espacial. Desde hace tiempo se viene especulando con la posibilidad de capturar objetos próximos a la Tierra (NEOs en su acrónimo anglosajón) y acercarlos a nuestro planeta, permitiendo así un acceso asequible a los mismos para estudiarlos in-situ, explotar sus recursos u otras finalidades. Por otro lado, las asteroides se consideran con frecuencia como posibles peligros de magnitud planetaria, ya que impactos de estos objetos con la Tierra suceden constantemente, y un asteroide suficientemente grande podría desencadenar eventos catastróficos. Pese a la gravedad de tales acontecimientos, lo cierto es que son ciertamente difíciles de predecir. De hecho, los ricos aspectos dinámicos de los asteroides, su modelado complejo y las incertidumbres observaciones hacen que predecir su posición futura con la precisión necesaria sea todo un reto. Este hecho se hace más relevante cuando los asteroides sufren encuentros próximos con la Tierra, y más aún cuando estos son recurrentes. En tales situaciones en las cuales fuera necesario tomar medidas para mitigar este tipo de riesgos, saber estimar con precisión sus trayectorias y probabilidades de colisión es de una importancia vital. Por ello, se necesitan herramientas avanzadas para modelar su dinámica y predecir sus órbitas con precisión, y son también necesarios nuevos conceptos tecnológicos para manipular sus órbitas llegado el caso. El objetivo de esta Tesis es proporcionar nuevos métodos, técnicas y soluciones para abordar estos retos. Las contribuciones de esta Tesis se engloban en dos áreas: una dedicada a la propagación numérica de asteroides, y otra a conceptos de deflexión y captura de asteroides. Por lo tanto, la primera parte de este documento presenta novedosos avances de apliación a la propagación dinámica de alta precisión de NEOs empleando métodos de regularización y perturbaciones, con especial énfasis en el método DROMO, mientras que la segunda parte expone ideas innovadoras para la captura de asteroides y comenta el uso del “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) como tecnología para deflectarlos. Abstract Driven by the latest discoveries enabled by recent technological advances and space missions, the study of asteroids has awakened the interest of the scientific community. In fact, asteroid missions have become very popular in the recent years (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) motivated by their outstanding scientific interest. Asteroids are fundamental constituents in the evolution of the Solar System, can be seen as vast concentrations of valuable natural resources, and are also considered as strategic targets for the future of space exploration. For long it has been hypothesized with the possibility of capturing small near-Earth asteroids and delivering them to the vicinity of the Earth in order to allow an affordable access to them for in-situ science, resource utilization and other purposes. On the other side of the balance, asteroids are often seen as potential planetary hazards, since impacts with the Earth happen all the time, and eventually an asteroid large enough could trigger catastrophic events. In spite of the severity of such occurrences, they are also utterly hard to predict. In fact, the rich dynamical aspects of asteroids, their complex modeling and observational uncertainties make exceptionally challenging to predict their future position accurately enough. This becomes particularly relevant when asteroids exhibit close encounters with the Earth, and more so when these happen recurrently. In such situations, where mitigation measures may need to be taken, it is of paramount importance to be able to accurately estimate their trajectories and collision probabilities. As a consequence, advanced tools are needed to model their dynamics and accurately predict their orbits, as well as new technological concepts to manipulate their orbits if necessary. The goal of this Thesis is to provide new methods, techniques and solutions to address these challenges. The contributions of this Thesis fall into two areas: one devoted to the numerical propagation of asteroids, and another to asteroid deflection and capture concepts. Hence, the first part of the dissertation presents novel advances applicable to the high accuracy dynamical propagation of near-Earth asteroids using regularization and perturbations techniques, with a special emphasis in the DROMO method, whereas the second part exposes pioneering ideas for asteroid retrieval missions and discusses the use of an “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) for asteroid deflection purposes.